Market Strategy – Capitalism in Action
January 2012
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“If you don’t read the newspaper you are uninformed; if you do read the newspaper you are misinformed.” - Mark Twain
In This Issue:
- Strategic Resources/ News
- Game Changers
- Mapping Markets
- Disclaimer
Strategic Resources/ News
For up-to-date news on Market Insights, see my twitter postings:
- 1) Imagining the Internet, Past & Present
- 2) Driving Forces
- 3) Is Decoupling Possible in a Global Economy?
Game Changers
Well, it’s 2012 and the world’s coming to an end – Not!
Let me start off by saying that Byvation’s content will be a little different. Instead of looking at today’s Macro Forces, I’ll be focusing on the history that lies at the heart of what’s going on in today’s world. Also I’ll dive into creating some possible future scenarios. To be more focused, most of what I’ll cover is what I call Game Changers – that is those events; be they Political, Economic, Social, or Technology – that really disrupt the status quo.
As Mark Twain said so wisely “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”
Therefore, I’m embarking on an in-depth study of history as it relates to Game Changers. As I plot out these game changers, I’ll dissect the events in order to understand how change occurs. Just look at Kodak as an example. MIT published an article a few days ago titled Kodak’s Missed Opportunities that talks about how the company’s fate dates all the way back to 1975.
Plus I’ll look at future scenarios and map out where those possibilities may lead. It’s all about change.
“Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.” – John F. Kennedy
As Andy Kessler, a former Hedge Fund manager says, “if you look out into the fog and you can just make out even the outline of what an industry is going to look like, you can buy companies today that will benefit from these structural changes …” And, this is really, really important because Kessler goes on to say that “…usually, all the money is made in the first 5 years. Even for 20-year investment opportunities, the most of money is made in the first 5…”
Final Thoughts
The world is full of opportunity, it’s all around us. All we need to do is open our eyes and see it. And to do that, we must see what’s really going on in the world. History is a critical component in understanding what’s going on because it’s the foundation. Then we can move on to create, to anticipate future change. Notice I said the word anticipate not predict. Lots of experts out there predict the future and most of the time they come up empty. As baseball legend Yogi Berra said it oh so well – “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”
Please feel free to contact me with your comments or feedback and I’ll leave you with this “The mind, once expanded to the dimensions of bigger ideas, never returns to its original size.” – Oliver Wendell Holmes
Mapping Markets
Last year we talked a lot about Contrary Thinking, so I thought it’s about time to talk about something different. In Mapping Markets I’ll cover subjects relating to dissecting markets – such as Innovation, Themes, Tectonic Shifts, and various forms of Ripple Effects. Let’s start off by talking about Themes.
Minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day, and week after week the market jumps all over the place like a pinball machine on steroids. It’s crazy! But … underneath all of this hyperactivity, the collective opinions which we call the market typically expresses itself in what may be called themes. Because of X, Industry Y will jump up (or come crashing back to earth), which in turn will affect Z stocks. Like ocean waves, themes will rise up, crest, and then other waves will take up the lead. The key is to spot upcoming waves early, jump on, and then get off before the wave collapses. To learn more, check out this excellent article in Mercenary Trader titled On the Importance of Themes (and Getting Around)
“Charting is a little like surfing. You don’t have to know a lot about the physics of tides, resonance, and fluid dynamics in order to catch a good wave. You just have to be able to sense when it’s happening and then have the drive to act at the right time.” Ed Seykota
Open your mind, explore the markets’ most inner feelings, and you’ll be amazed how bright the spotlight will be. Best of luck out there in the trenches and drop me a line sometime.
Disclaimer
All material in Byvation is for informational purposes only. Any and all
ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied herein, should not be
construed as a recommendation to invest, trade, and/or speculate in the markets.
Be advised that Michael Davis and/ or Brencom Business Technologies, Inc. will
not be held responsible for any investment actions that you take as a result of
any information mentioned in Byvation.
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“It is not the critic who counts, not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles or where the doer of deeds could have done better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly, who errs and comes up short again and again because there is no effort without error and shortcomings, who knows the great devotion, who spends himself in a worthy cause, who at best knows in the end the high achievement of triumph and who, at worst, if he fails while daring greatly, knows his place shall never be with those timid and cold souls who knew neither victory nor defeat.” – Theodore Roosevelt
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